The outcome of the recent vote on whether the United Kingdom should leave Europe (or was it just the European Union?) has been met with surprise in some quarters.
I’m not entirely clear why we should be surprised. For a start, there were only two options on the ballot paper, so there was always a possibility that one of them might be chosen. But over and above that, the appeal of the Brexit case is one that every mediator is familiar with.
At the start of every mediation, what each of the parties wants is pretty simple. They want everything. Their monetary claim paid, in full, obviously. Plus their legal costs. But also, a resolution, now, today. Without having to wait for a trial, without the associated legal costs, and without the horrid uncertainty of going to trial either. Not much to ask for, really. Who wouldn’t want that? The trouble is, the other side aren’t about to give them all of it. And although the parties want all of that, and feel entitled to all of that, they mostly come to the mediation knowing that the Mediation Fairy, who might give them all of that, doesn’t actually exist. Instead of the Mediation Fairy and her magic wand they just end up with old Stupid Bear, who doesn’t have a magic wand. And I have great respect for the good sense of the parties and their advisors in the cases I mediate because, mostly, they recognise that in the real world, and in the absence of the Mediation Fairy, some of the good things they want, like certainty, and no more legal costs, and a resolution now, come at a price. A price in concessions. And that they can’t have everything, however appealing having everything might be.
The referendum posed similar issues. The Leave camp promised that we could have access to the Single European Market. But without paying the associated costs. That our trade could flow where we wanted it to, but without our having to concede freedom of movement. That we could keep the money we paid to the European Union, and put it into the NHS, and afterwards use it again to invest in British industry, but that we wouldn’t miss the money we have been receiving from the European Union. That we could have the United Kingdom “back” but that the UK wouldn’t break up as Scotland leaves. And that all of these wonders could be accomplished without a run on the pound or a meltdown in the stock markets triggering a recession, and that our European partners would willingly sit down to grant us all of this. In short, we can have everything, at no cost, and with no downside. And unlimited chocolate for life. Who wouldn’t want that? Who could possibly vote against it? Against the prospect of all these good things, the Remain camp offered only tedious compromises.
There was no contest, really, between the appeal of the two messages. If there was a downside to the Leave camp’s message it was only that it would require the Brexit Fairy to bring about all those good things. Now, as you would expect of a mediation blog, this is a strictly non political blog. We have no allegiance to any side or party. It may be that the Brexit Fairy exists. In the finest tradition of mediation, I express no personal view about that. But she certainly appears to be missing in action at the moment. Because barely 24 hours after the referendum the pledge to put all the money being sent to the European Union into the NHS has been abandoned (that one didn't last more than a couple of hours after the result), the promise to take back control of our borders appears to be being watered down, there has been a run on the pound, the stock market has crashed, the UK’s credit rating has been lowered, and that usually means a recession isn't far behind. Meanwhile, the Scots are heading for a second referendum on leaving the UK, and our erstwhile European partners are being decidedly uncooperative, almost as if they resent us leaving them. What the Leave Camp dismissed as Project Fear at the moment looks like Project Truth, if not Project State the Blindingly Obvious.
But, as I say, this blog is strictly non partisan. It’s early days yet. Perhaps the Brexit Fairy exists. Perhaps she’s on holiday, and even now packing her magic wand and about to head to our rescue. So, if you should happen to see her, or know where she is, would you mind ever so much asking her if she could kindly get a move on? Because for the sake of our country, she had better exist, and she had better get a move on, or things may turn nasty.
Stupid Bear
